Friday, June 20, 2014

Thoughts on the Vringo (VRNG) Warrant Transaction

Vringo (VRNG) just announced a warrant transaction with 5.7M of their $1.76 warrants from three institutional investors.  VRNG issued the holders a 1 year warrant that expire on June 21, 2015.  VRNG immediately takes in $10M, which bolsters the cash reserves to $38M that should last through 2016.

Why this is important:

- VRNG now has operating cash on hand that should last through 2016 and a cash raise is likely not needed to see their case resolve against Google.  The only way I see a cash raise is if the company enters into a new transaction for additional high quality patent assets that management believes present a large opportunity.

- The aggressive shorting will probably slow down a little.  The holders of the warrants were likely short common stock against the warrants. 

- VRNG can file new cases in additional jurisdictions against ZTE and a new round of infrastructure targets, possibly some handset targets, or a combination of both.  With a road map already in place using ZTE as a benchmark, we should see new companies being filed against in the same jurisdictions that we are already seeing now (Brazil, Spain, India, Germany, UK, France, Australia).  The results have been very favorable so far for VRNG that is on the cutting edge of NPE global enforcement.  There are not many if any other NPEs obtaining standard essential patent injunctions throughout the world. 

- The new warrants have a $5.06 strike and a June 21, 2015 date.  VRNG could take in an additional $25M+ if the new warrants are exercised, which would probably require the CAFC to affirm the Google litigation to exceed the $5.06 strike price.  A eight or nine figure global settlement with ZTE should also get the share price over the $5.06 strike.  The new warrants do not have any registration rights or anti-dilution features.

Disclosure: I am long VRNG common stock.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

6/19/2014 Market Wrap

News:
Nothing to Report
Filings:
Nothing to Report
Trading Commentary:
The IP sector traded mostly flat today in conjunction with the overall markets.
At 10AM EST SCOTUS finally published their decision on the Alice v CLS
software patent case.  My opinion is most IP Investments and software patents
will not be affected.
Ticker $CHG %CHG  Volume      Closing 
Price
ACTG  $   (0.0250) -0.0015                 207,300  $                             16.83
BCYP.OB  $      0.0050 4.76%                    72,300  $                             0.110
CLGL  unch  unch                      2,000  $                           0.0195
COPY.OB  $   (0.0150) -4.62%                      8,500  $                           0.3100
CRDS  $          0.16 5.69%                 719,900  $                               2.97
DSS     $          0.01 0.69%                 600,000  $                               1.45
EDIG.OB  $   (0.0020) -4.35%                    52,500  $                           0.0440
ENIP  $      0.0079 26.33%                 283,400  $                             0.038
INVT (EONC)  $          0.12 4.12%                    72,200  $                               3.03
FNJN.OB  $          0.15 2.91%                    62,500  $                               5.30
IDCC  $        (0.13) -0.28%                 330,700  $                             46.73
MARA.OB  unch  unch                    21,200  $                               9.80
MGT  $          0.02 1.72%                    11,100  $                               1.18
NTIP  $          0.02 1.03%                      8,500  $                               1.97
OTIV  $        (0.11) -4.00%                 100,300  $                               2.64
PCO   $          0.01 0.57%                    68,400  $                               1.70
PPRO  $        (0.15) -4.62%                    37,300  $                               3.10
PRKR  $        (0.05) -1.02%                 392,800  $                               4.96
PTNT  $        (0.02) -0.62%                    15,200  $                               3.22
RMBS  $        (0.01) -0.09%                 715,900  $                             14.65
SITO.OB  $      0.0350 10.14%                    57,500  $                             0.380
SPEX   $        (0.06) -3.09%              1,853,100  $                               1.88
STRP  $          0.46 4.65%                 133,100  $                             10.35
TIVO  $          0.29 2.42%              1,951,100  $                             12.58
TSRA  $        (0.16) -0.71%                 151,400  $                             22.46
UPIP  $          0.04 1.77%                 333,800  $                               2.27
VHC   $        (0.22) -1.30%                 299,900  $                             16.68
VRNG  $        (0.11) -3.06%              1,602,200  $                               3.51
WDDD.OB  $   (0.0040) -2.08%                    61,200  $                           0.1880
WILN   $          0.04 1.29%                    93,300  $                               3.13

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

6/18/2014 Market Wrap

News:
Nothing to Report
Filings:
Nothing to Report
Trading Commentary:
The IP sector traded mostly flat today and did not capitalize in the broad
markets move up today.
I published an update on Marathon Patent Group (MARA) that is worth a read
on the developments last week.
VHC very quietly closed up nearly 6% on a little over 400K shares.  There is no
news that I am aware of.  Shares have been range bound as investors wait for
the CAFC to decide on the Apple case.
Ticker $CHG %CHG  Volume      Closing 
Price
ACTG  $   (0.1400) -0.0082                 311,800  $                             16.85
BCYP.OB  $   (0.0050) -4.55%                 106,100  $                             0.105
CLGL  unch  unch  N/A   $                           0.0195
COPY.OB  $      0.0200 6.56%                 167,800  $                           0.3250
CRDS  $          0.02 0.72%                    26,200  $                               2.81
DSS     $        (0.03) -2.04%                    98,200  $                               1.44
EDIG.OB  $      0.0029 6.73%                 104,900  $                           0.0460
ENIP  $   (0.0104) -25.74%                 526,200  $                             0.030
INVT (EONC)  $        (0.08) -2.68%                    45,100  $                               2.91
FNJN.OB  $          0.15 3.00%                    29,500  $                               5.15
IDCC  $        (0.11) -0.23%                 382,500  $                             46.86
MARA.OB  unch  unch                    33,700  $                               9.80
MGT  $        (0.07) -5.69%                 151,900  $                               1.16
NTIP  unch  unch                    66,000  $                               1.95
OTIV  $        (0.02) -0.72%                    91,700  $                               2.75
PCO   unch  unch                    78,600  $                               1.69
PPRO  unch  unch  N/A   $                               3.25
PRKR  $        (0.16) -3.09%                 411,000  $                               5.01
PTNT  $          0.09 2.86%                          800  $                               3.24
RMBS  $          0.06 0.41%                 676,700  $                             14.66
SITO.OB  $   (0.0050) -1.43%                 157,100  $                             0.345
SPEX   $        (0.06) -3.00%              1,495,400  $                               1.94
STRP  $        (0.09) 0.90%                 136,300  $                               9.89
TIVO  $          0.08 0.61%              1,384,500  $                             12.28
TSRA  $        (0.18) -0.79%                 173,300  $                             22.62
UPIP  $        (0.02) -0.89%                 164,700  $                               2.23
VHC   $          0.93 5.82%                 438,700  $                             16.90
VRNG  $          0.07 1.97%              1,557,000  $                               3.62
WDDD.OB  $   (0.0005) -0.26%                    45,800  $                           0.1920
WILN   $          0.03 0.98%                    52,000  $                               3.09

Update on Marathon Patent Group 6/18/2014

Marathon Patent Group (Ticker: MARA) announced on May 5th, 2014 they acquired certain assets from IP Navigation, which I believe could yield very lucrative results.  I believe the market is completely unaware of the following developments, which presents a unique opportunity for investors.  The assets are as follows:

IP Liquidity Ventures:

- 3 Life Sciences patents and 1 patent application

- 3 Search & Network Intrusion patents

- 3 Tire Pressure patents

Dynamic:

- 4 Patents that cover arterial stenosis, semiconductor wafer processing, natural language interface, and a method that tracks eye movement.


Sarif:

- 1 US patent and 4 Foreign Patents &Applications that relate to microsurgery methods.

Last week had a series of events that could yield excellent results for their monetization of the natural language asset.  First some back story.  The patent was developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.  The patent covers and is titled Natural language interface using constrained intermediate dictionary of results.  The patent was filed for in May 2001, with a priority date of April 2000.  It was finally granted at the USPTO on February 13, 2007 as patent number 7177798 ('798).  

The '798 patent was asserted against Apple in October 2012 , the original case was jointly dismissed and refiled on June 3rd, 2013.    The complaint alleges that iPhone 4S, iPhone 5, iPad with Retina Display, iPad Mini, and iPod Touch infringe on the patent through its use of Siri.  It further alleges willful infringement through the citation of the '798 patent in no fewer than 3 Apple patent applications.  Lastly, the complaint alleges that Siri is a significant selling feature in the accused devices and cites the Apple v Samsung case No 2012-1507, slip op. at 8 (Fed. Cir. Oct 11, 2012. 

Dynamic filed for an ex partes reexamination to invalidate one Apple patent and potentially to press Apple to make admissions regarding claim construction.  Apple's '283 patent cited the Dynamic '798 during prosecution.  The ex parte reexamination currently stands at a second non-final rejection at the patent office.

Apple filed for Inter Partes Review (IPR) at the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) on 10/21/2013 to review the '798 patent.  The PTAB decided on 4/15/2014 to not institute review.  Apple further filed an additional two IPRs on 1/3/2014.  Both of these reviews were decided to not be instituted last week on 6/12/2014 (Link 1 / Link 2). 

The second development last week in regards to the '798 patent was the issuance of the Markman order in the New York Northern District Court (the venue of the case against Apple).  The court construed nine disputed terms.  One term was neutral, one term was determined no construction was necessary, six terms agreed with Marathon's proposed construction, and two terms agreed with Apple's construction.

The rest of the schedule so far is the following:

Advice of Counsel Disclosure by 7/12/2014
Fact Discovery by 7/27/2014
Initial Expert Reports by 8/11/2014
Responsive Expert Reports by 9/10/2014
Close of Expert Discovery is 10/10/2014
Dispositive Motions by 11/9/2014

A trial date has not been set but I believe it will be sometime in mid 2015.

With a favorable Markman order and IPR result both now on the record, I believe that MARA's position is very strong.  I also believe damages could be quite significant in the $100M-$300M range if not higher if the case proceeds to trial.  The '798 patent does not expire until 2020, which could yield a significant reasonable royalty if infringement is proved and an injunction is not issued as relief.  The terms of the patent purchase also support my opinions:


Total Net Recoveries
Applicable Percentage
$0 - $10.0 million
0%
$10.0 million - $40.0 million  
40%
Over $40.0 million
50%

There are always risks with patent litigation that need to be considered, such as delays and unfavorable decisions that is often very difficult to forecast and I am unqualified to do so.  I suggest seeking out an expert legal opinion from a patent lawyer for further analysis.

The company is also monetizing nearly a dozen additional licensing campaigns, which I intend to cover in more detail over the next few weeks.  I am tracking 27 settlements in Q2 2014 so far.  Estimating the revenue has proven to be very difficult in prior quarters.  MARA reported $2.78M in revenue during Q1 2014.  I am anticipating a range of $3.5-$4.5M for Q2 2014.

Conclusion:

I believe there is a very favorable risk/reward opportunity in Marathon Patent Group through management's monetization efforts.  Trying to determine price targets and valuations in patent investments is extremely difficult.  The '798 represents a very large opportunity for the company and shareholders that is largely unknown to mainstream patent investors.  MARA only has 5.6M shares outstanding and a $50M valuation with significant insider holdings and an excellent partner in IP Navigation.  Additionally, MARA needs to secure an uplisting to a senior exchange in order to unlock further value for shareholders.

Questions, comments, or concerns are always appreciated so please email me at iphawk@outlook.com .

I will have a full comprehensive overview of the entire company in a few weeks.  I am long Marathon Patent Group (MARA) common stock and I have no intention to buy/sell in the next 72 hours.  I was not compensated for this blog entry and have no business relationships with Marathon Patent Group or any company discussed.  All opinions are my own based on the factual record.  Any errors can be reported to iphawk@outlook.com for immediate correction.  Do not make investment decisions based on this blog post.  I am not an investment advisor.  I am not responsible for your investment decisions.

6/18/2014 PIPCO Pre-Market News

National Alliance initiated coverage on TIVO with a Buy rating and $17.50 Price target.

Vringo (VRNG) announced an update in their infrastructure monetization campaign with ZTE, which included an injunction being upheld in Brazil after a hearing on June 11, 2014.

ZTE filed also filed a complaint with the European Commission.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

6/17/2014 Market Wrap

News:
Spherix (SPEX) announced they will be joining the Russell Microcap Index
on June 27, 2014
Wilan (WILN) announced that Paul Richman will rejoin Wilan as a senior
advisor to the Board and Management.
Filings:
Nothing to Report
Trading Commentary:
The sector again traded up 1% outperforming the broad markets again.
IDCC continues to rally after positive recent news and last Friday's ITC prelim
determination.
RMBS traded to a 52 week high and closed just under at 14.60 on average
volume for the day.  Shares have been strong after management has executed
a number of patent agreements.
SPEX closed up 10% on above average volume after announcing they will
be added to the Russell Microcap Index.
Ticker $CHG %CHG  Volume      Closing 
Price
ACTG  $      0.2000 1.22                 391,100  $                             17.11
BCYP.OB  unch  unch                    92,300  $                             0.110
CLGL  $   (0.0005) -2.50%                      8,000  $                           0.0195
COPY.OB  $      0.0200 7.27%                 260,600  $                           0.2950
CRDS  $        (0.06) -2.11%                    88,800  $                               2.79
DSS     $          0.03 2.08%                 123,500  $                               1.47
EDIG.OB  unch  unch                    33,700  $                           0.0431
ENIP  $      0.0011 2.80%                      1,500  $                             0.040
INVT (EONC)  $        (0.30) -9.12%                    63,100  $                               2.99
FNJN.OB  $          0.15 3.09%                    29,600  $                               5.00
IDCC  $          0.91 1.98%                 479,000  $                             47.13
MARA.OB  $        (0.19) -1.90%                      4,100  $                               9.80
MGT  $          0.09 7.89%                    52,900  $                               1.23
NTIP  $          0.01 0.52%                      1,000  $                               1.95
OTIV  $          0.06 2.21%                 116,800  $                               2.77
PCO   $          0.05 3.05%                 259,100  $                               1.69
PPRO  unch  unch  N/A   $                               3.25
PRKR  $          0.13 2.59%              1,142,600  $                               5.17
PTNT  $        (0.02) -0.62%                      3,700  $                               3.20
RMBS  $          0.22 1.53%              1,318,300  $                             14.60
SITO.OB  $   (0.0300) -7.89%                    38,100  $                             0.350
SPEX   $          0.19 10.38%              6,740,700  $                               2.00
STRP  $          0.53 5.61%                 317,700  $                               9.98
TIVO  $          0.16 1.33%              1,131,000  $                             12.20
TSRA  $          0.12 0.53%                 258,000  $                             22.80
UPIP  $          0.05 2.27%                 315,700  $                               2.25
VHC   $        (0.10) -0.62%                 268,100  $                             15.97
VRNG  $        (0.08) -2.20%              2,063,500  $                               3.55
WDDD.OB  unch  unch                    25,500  $                           0.1925
WILN   unch  unch                    80,600  $                               3.06